Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
