Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
